Full Population Estimates

Several statistical scenarios have been proposed below that are based on different assumptions about how excluded students might have performed on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). Combined with the actual performance of students who were assessed, these scenarios produce results for the full population (one scenario that includes estimates for excluded students) in each jurisdiction and each assessment year. These techniques provide an indication as to which statements about trend gains or losses might be changed if exclusion rates were zero in both assessment years (and if the assumptions about the performance of missing students are correct).

The results of one of these scenarios are presented here. However, the methods used to construct the scenario are still under development. The results of this special analysis should not be interpreted as official results.

State and Trial Urban District Assessment (TUDA) results are accessible by clicking links in the table below. The results are listed and can be tabulated by year, jurisdiction (state or district), grade (4, 8, 12) and subject (mathematics and reading).

Within each table, the results are organized as follows:

• The first column presents the reported score gain (or loss) for each jurisdiction based on the sample of students who were included in the assessment.
• The second column shows the score gain (or loss) under the full population scenario.
• The third column reports the difference between the official gain and the gain under this scenario.
• Statistically significant score changes in columns one and two are marked with an asterisk. A footnote marks jurisdictions that show a trend that is statistically significant in the official results but not significant under the full population scenario or vice versa.