When designing each school sample, there are five objectives that underlie the process of determining the probability of selection for each school and how many students are to be sampled from each selected school containing eighth-grade students:
The goal in determining the school's measure of size (MOS) is to optimize across the last four objectives in terms of maintaining the accuracy of estimates and the cost effectiveness of the sample design.
Therefore, to meet the target student sample size objective and achieve a reasonable compromise among the other four objectives, the following algorithm was used to assign a measure of size to each school based on its eighth-grade enrollment as indicated on the sampling frame.
The measures of size vary by enrollment size. In general, very small schools were assigned a measure of size one quarter of the target sample size of 35 students. The initial MOS was set as follows:
where xjs is the estimated eighth-grade enrollment (j = 8) in school s and PSU_WTS is the primary sampling unit (PSU) weight for school s.
A school with 15 percent or more Black and Hispanic students in the eighth grade is considered in the high Black/Hispanic stratum for NAEP. The measures of size for schools in the high Black/Hispanic stratum are doubled to increase their chances of selection:
Also, note that the value of Mjs was doubled for all schools in the Honolulu, Hawaii PSU in order to ensure the inclusion of sample schools from Hawaii.
The next task in this development is to describe bj, the constant of proportionality. It is a sampling parameter that, when multiplied with a school’s preliminary measure of size (Mjs), yields the school’s final measure of size. It is computed in such a way that, when used with the systematic sampling procedure, the target student sample size is achieved. For public schools, bj is 0.000038577 for eighth grade.
The final measure of size, Ejs, is defined as:
The quantity uj (the maximum number of times a school can be selected or “hits” allowed) in this formula is designed to put an upper bound on the burden for the sampled schools. For public schools, uj is 1.
Schools were ordered within each jurisdiction using the serpentine sort described under the stratification of public schools. A systematic sample was then drawn using this serpentine sorted list and the measures of size. The number of public schools selected was approximately 230 for the eighth-grade arts assessment.